What Hindcon Chemicals Limited's (NSE:HINDCON) 31% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Hindcon Chemicals Limited (NSE:HINDCON) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 31% gain in the last month alone. The last month tops off a massive increase of 120% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Hindcon Chemicals' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 27x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in India, where the median P/E ratio is around 29x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Hindcon Chemicals as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Hindcon Chemicals

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hindcon Chemicals, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Hindcon Chemicals' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 45% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 70% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's curious that Hindcon Chemicals' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Hindcon Chemicals' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Hindcon Chemicals currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Hindcon Chemicals that you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Hindcon Chemicals. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.