Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Ganga Forging Limited (NSE:GANGAFORGE) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Ganga Forging's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2025 Ganga Forging had debt of ₹168.5m, up from ₹91.7m in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
A Look At Ganga Forging's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Ganga Forging had liabilities of ₹208.6m due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹93.8m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹1.72m as well as receivables valued at ₹62.4m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹238.3m.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of ₹384.2m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Ganga Forging will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
See our latest analysis for Ganga Forging
Over 12 months, Ganga Forging saw its revenue hold pretty steady, and it did not report positive earnings before interest and tax. While that's not too bad, we'd prefer see growth.
Caveat Emptor
Importantly, Ganga Forging had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost ₹24m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. Another cause for caution is that is bled ₹76m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with Ganga Forging (at least 3 which are concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.