Berger Paints India Limited Just Missed EPS By 9.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Berger Paints India Limited (NSE:BERGEPAINT) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to ₹549 in the past week. Revenues of ₹29b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at ₹2.57, missing estimates by 9.3%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Berger Paints India

After the latest results, the 19 analysts covering Berger Paints India are now predicting revenues of ₹126.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 20% to ₹11.65. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹129.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹12.21 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹542 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Berger Paints India analyst has a price target of ₹650 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹470. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Berger Paints India shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Berger Paints India's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 12% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Berger Paints India is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Berger Paints India going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Berger Paints India is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.