APL Apollo Tubes Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on APL Apollo Tubes Limited (NSE:APLAPOLLO), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.1% short of analyst estimates at ₹40b, and statutory earnings of ₹5.97 per share missed forecasts by 9.5%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on APL Apollo Tubes after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for APL Apollo Tubes

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for APL Apollo Tubes from 15 analysts is for revenues of ₹242.0b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 57% to ₹43.31. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹253.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹45.74 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹1,768, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on APL Apollo Tubes' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic APL Apollo Tubes analyst has a price target of ₹2,132 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹1,059. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting APL Apollo Tubes' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 23% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that APL Apollo Tubes is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for APL Apollo Tubes. They also downgraded APL Apollo Tubes' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for APL Apollo Tubes going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for APL Apollo Tubes that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.