Some Confidence Is Lacking In Umang Dairies Limited (NSE:UMANGDAIRY) As Shares Slide 27%

Umang Dairies Limited (NSE:UMANGDAIRY) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 27% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The recent drop has obliterated the annual return, with the share price now down 2.2% over that longer period.

Although its price has dipped substantially, there still wouldn't be many who think Umang Dairies' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x is worth a mention when the median P/S in India's Food industry is similar at about 1.1x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Umang Dairies

What Does Umang Dairies' Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Umang Dairies' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Umang Dairies' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Umang Dairies' Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Umang Dairies would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 21%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 13% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 12% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Umang Dairies' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Following Umang Dairies' share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Umang Dairies' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 4 warning signs for Umang Dairies (3 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.