Raj Oil Mills Limited's (NSE:ROML) 25% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Raj Oil Mills Limited (NSE:ROML) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 56% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in India have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 33x, you may consider Raj Oil Mills as a stock to avoid entirely with its 56.8x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For example, consider that Raj Oil Mills' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Raj Oil Mills

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Raj Oil Mills' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

Raj Oil Mills' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 30%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 58% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Raj Oil Mills' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Raj Oil Mills' P/E?

Shares in Raj Oil Mills have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Raj Oil Mills currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Raj Oil Mills has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com