Adani Wilmar Limited (NSE:AWL) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a good week for Adani Wilmar Limited (NSE:AWL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.1% to ₹348. Adani Wilmar reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of ₹142b and statutory earnings per share of ₹1.14, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Adani Wilmar after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Adani Wilmar

Following the latest results, Adani Wilmar's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹557.7b in 2025. This would be a credible 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 88% to ₹7.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹554.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹6.95 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at ₹374, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Adani Wilmar at ₹455 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹325. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Adani Wilmar shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Adani Wilmar's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.4% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.4% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Adani Wilmar is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Adani Wilmar following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Adani Wilmar's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Adani Wilmar going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Adani Wilmar is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com