Do Its Financials Have Any Role To Play In Driving Indian Oil Corporation Limited's (NSE:IOC) Stock Up Recently?

Indian Oil's (NSE:IOC) stock is up by a considerable 7.4% over the past month. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Indian Oil's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Indian Oil is:

5.9% = ₹109b ÷ ₹1.9t (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every ₹1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated ₹0.06 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Indian Oil

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Indian Oil's Earnings Growth And 5.9% ROE

As you can see, Indian Oil's ROE looks pretty weak. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 14%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. However, we we're pleasantly surprised to see that Indian Oil grew its net income at a significant rate of 24% in the last five years. We believe that there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

As a next step, we compared Indian Oil's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 30% in the same period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Indian Oil is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Indian Oil Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Indian Oil's three-year median payout ratio is a pretty moderate 50%, meaning the company retains 50% of its income. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the high growth we discussed above, it looks like Indian Oil is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, Indian Oil has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 40% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 11% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Indian Oil certainly does have some positive factors to consider. With a high rate of reinvestment, albeit at a low ROE, the company has managed to see a considerable growth in its earnings. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.