Insufficient Growth At Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (NSE:GMDCLTD) Hampers Share Price

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited's (NSE:GMDCLTD) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.1x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 32x and even P/E's above 58x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

Gujarat Mineral Development could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Gujarat Mineral Development would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 8.0%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 364% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 25% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 24% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we are not surprised that Gujarat Mineral Development is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

As we suspected, our examination of Gujarat Mineral Development's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Gujarat Mineral Development (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Gujarat Mineral Development, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.