Calculating The Fair Value Of The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited (NSE:GESHIP)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited (NSE:GESHIP) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Great Eastern Shipping

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹14.8b	₹15.5b	₹16.3b	₹17.2b	₹18.3b	₹19.4b	₹20.7b	₹22.0b	₹23.5b	₹25.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 3.72%	Est @ 4.64%	Est @ 5.29%	Est @ 5.74%	Est @ 6.05%	Est @ 6.27%	Est @ 6.43%	Est @ 6.54%	Est @ 6.61%	Est @ 6.67%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 20%	₹12.4k	₹10.8k	₹9.5k	₹8.4k	₹7.4k	₹6.6k	₹5.8k	₹5.2k	₹4.6k	₹4.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹75b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 20%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹25b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (20%– 6.8%) = ₹206b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹206b÷ ( 1 + 20%)¹⁰= ₹34b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹108b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹647, the company appears about fair value at a 15% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Great Eastern Shipping as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 20%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.433. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Great Eastern Shipping, there are three pertinent aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Great Eastern Shipping that you should be aware of.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.