Earnings Report: Aegis Logistics Limited Missed Revenue Estimates By 28%

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Aegis Logistics Limited (NSE:AEGISLOG), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (₹16b) coming in 28% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of ₹3.75 fell 20% short. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Aegis Logistics after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Aegis Logistics

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aegis Logistics' six analysts is for revenues of ₹84.1b in 2025. This would reflect a major 28% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 10% to ₹18.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹93.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹18.62 in 2025. So there's been a clear change in sentiment after these results, with the analysts making a substantial drop in revenues and reconfirming their earnings per share estimates.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of ₹728, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Aegis Logistics' market value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Aegis Logistics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹1,050 and the most bearish at ₹462 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aegis Logistics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 40% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aegis Logistics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded Aegis Logistics' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at ₹728, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aegis Logistics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Aegis Logistics is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com