More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited's (NSE:IRFC) Shares After Tumbling 26%

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (NSE:IRFC) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 24% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, it's still not a stretch to say that Indian Railway Finance's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.5x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in India, where the median P/E ratio is around 25x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Indian Railway Finance could be doing better as it's been growing earnings less than most other companies lately. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this lacklustre earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

Check out our latest analysis for Indian Railway Finance

Keen to find out how analysts think Indian Railway Finance's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

Indian Railway Finance's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 8.4% last year. However, due to its less than impressive performance prior to this period, EPS growth is practically non-existent over the last three years overall. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 1.4% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 25% growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it interesting that Indian Railway Finance is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Indian Railway Finance's P/E?

Following Indian Railway Finance's share price tumble, its P/E is now hanging on to the median market P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Indian Railway Finance currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Indian Railway Finance (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Indian Railway Finance, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.