A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Blue Coast Hotels Limited (NSE:BLUECOAST)

How far off is Blue Coast Hotels Limited (NSE:BLUECOAST) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Blue Coast Hotels

Crunching the numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹8.77m	₹10.1m	₹11.5m	₹12.7m	₹14.0m	₹15.2m	₹16.5m	₹17.7m	₹19.1m	₹20.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 19.43%	Est @ 15.62%	Est @ 12.96%	Est @ 11.09%	Est @ 9.79%	Est @ 8.87%	Est @ 8.23%	Est @ 7.79%	Est @ 7.47%	Est @ 7.25%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 19%	₹7.4	₹7.1	₹6.8	₹6.3	₹5.8	₹5.3	₹4.8	₹4.4	₹3.9	₹3.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹55m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 19%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹20m× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (19%– 6.7%) = ₹175m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹175m÷ ( 1 + 19%)¹⁰= ₹30m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹85m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹6.5, the company appears about fair value at a 7.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Blue Coast Hotels as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 19%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Blue Coast Hotels, we've compiled three essential items you should further examine:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Blue Coast Hotels .
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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