Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Advani Hotels & Resorts (India) Limited (NSE:ADVANIHOTR)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Advani Hotels & Resorts (India) is ₹76.63 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Advani Hotels & Resorts (India)'s ₹80.80 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Advani Hotels & Resorts (India)'s peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -235%

How far off is Advani Hotels & Resorts (India) Limited (NSE:ADVANIHOTR) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Advani Hotels & Resorts (India)

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹274.8m	₹306.6m	₹337.6m	₹368.4m	₹399.4m	₹431.0m	₹463.6m	₹497.6m	₹533.2m	₹570.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 13.63%	Est @ 11.57%	Est @ 10.13%	Est @ 9.12%	Est @ 8.41%	Est @ 7.92%	Est @ 7.57%	Est @ 7.33%	Est @ 7.16%	Est @ 7.04%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 15%	₹238	₹230	₹219	₹207	₹195	₹182	₹170	₹158	₹146	₹136

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹1.9b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹571m× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (15%– 6.8%) = ₹7.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹7.0b÷ ( 1 + 15%)¹⁰= ₹1.7b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹3.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹80.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Advani Hotels & Resorts (India) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.042. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Advani Hotels & Resorts (India), there are three pertinent elements you should assess:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Advani Hotels & Resorts (India) that you should be aware of.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.