Robust Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Siyaram Silk Mills (NSE:SIYSIL)

Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Siyaram Silk Mills Limited's (NSE:SIYSIL) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that shareholders have noticed something concerning in the numbers.

See our latest analysis for Siyaram Silk Mills

A Closer Look At Siyaram Silk Mills' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to March 2022, Siyaram Silk Mills had an accrual ratio of 0.25. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of ₹295m despite its profit of ₹2.16b, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was ₹3.1b a year ago though, so Siyaram Silk Mills has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. One positive for Siyaram Silk Mills shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Siyaram Silk Mills' Profit Performance

Siyaram Silk Mills didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Because of this, we think that it may be that Siyaram Silk Mills' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that Siyaram Silk Mills has 3 warning signs (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Siyaram Silk Mills' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.