Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, BPL Limited (NSE:BPL) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for BPL
What Is BPL's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that BPL had ₹2.09b in debt in September 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it also had ₹79.7m in cash, and so its net debt is ₹2.01b.
A Look At BPL's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that BPL had liabilities of ₹2.10b due within a year, and liabilities of ₹215.2m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹79.7m and ₹248.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling ₹1.99b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
BPL has a market capitalization of ₹4.65b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Strangely BPL has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 12.6, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 1k. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Pleasingly, BPL is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 402% gain in the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since BPL will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, BPL's free cash flow amounted to 35% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Based on what we've seen BPL is not finding it easy, given its net debt to EBITDA, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its interest cover. Considering this range of data points, we think BPL is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with BPL (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if BPL might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:BPL
BPL
Manufactures and sells consumer electronic products primarily in India.
Solid track record and slightly overvalued.