Kajaria Ceramics Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Kajaria Ceramics Limited (NSE:KAJARIACER) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ₹12b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 21%, coming in at just ₹4.88 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Kajaria Ceramics after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Kajaria Ceramics

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Kajaria Ceramics from 28 analysts is for revenues of ₹54.2b in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 37% to ₹30.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹56.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹34.82 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 13% to ₹1,280. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Kajaria Ceramics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹1,695 and the most bearish at ₹799 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kajaria Ceramics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Kajaria Ceramics'historical trends, as the 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 14% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that Kajaria Ceramics is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Kajaria Ceramics' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Kajaria Ceramics analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Kajaria Ceramics has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.