Graphite India Limited Just Missed Revenue By 17%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Graphite India Limited (NSE:GRAPHITE) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.7% to ₹486 in the past week. Revenues were ₹6.4b, 17% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of ₹41.36 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Graphite India

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the twin analysts covering Graphite India, is for revenues of ₹27.9b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 6.3% reduction in Graphite India's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 72% to ₹41.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹33.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹35.30 in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the latest results, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also granting a decent improvement in to the earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 6.8% to ₹664, with the analysts signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 2.1% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 12% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 21% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Graphite India is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Graphite India following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Graphite India's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Graphite India you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.