Should You Think About Buying Cummins India Limited (NSE:CUMMINSIND) Now?

Cummins India Limited (NSE:CUMMINSIND), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NSEI. As a ₹244b market cap stock, it seems odd Cummins India is not more well-covered by analysts. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing given that there are less eyes on the stock to push it closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Cummins India’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Cummins India

What's the opportunity in Cummins India?

According to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Cummins India’s ratio of 38.48x is above its peer average of 24.93x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Machinery industry. Another thing to keep in mind is that Cummins India’s share price is quite stable relative to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. This means that if you believe the current share price should move towards the levels of its industry peers over time, a low beta could suggest it is not likely to reach that level anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard for it to fall back down into an attractive buying range again.

What kind of growth will Cummins India generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Cummins India's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 41%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in CUMMINSIND’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe CUMMINSIND should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on CUMMINSIND for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for CUMMINSIND, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Cummins India, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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