Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Cochin Shipyard Limited (NSE:COCHINSHIP)
- The projected fair value for Cochin Shipyard is ₹488 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- With ₹442 share price, Cochin Shipyard appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Peers of Cochin Shipyard are currently trading on average at a 1,183% premium
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Cochin Shipyard Limited (NSE:COCHINSHIP) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Cochin Shipyard
Crunching The Numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (₹, Millions)||₹5.96b||₹6.57b||₹7.17b||₹7.78b||₹8.40b||₹9.04b||₹9.70b||₹10.4b||₹11.1b||₹11.9b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 11.66%||Est @ 10.20%||Est @ 9.18%||Est @ 8.47%||Est @ 7.97%||Est @ 7.62%||Est @ 7.38%||Est @ 7.21%||Est @ 7.09%||Est @ 7.01%|
|Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 17%||₹5.1k||₹4.8k||₹4.5k||₹4.2k||₹3.9k||₹3.5k||₹3.3k||₹3.0k||₹2.7k||₹2.5k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹37b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 17%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹12b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (17%– 6.8%) = ₹127b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹127b÷ ( 1 + 17%)10= ₹27b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹64b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹442, the company appears about fair value at a 9.5% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cochin Shipyard as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 17%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.032. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Cochin Shipyard
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Machinery industry.
- Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
- Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine COCHINSHIP's earnings prospects.
- No apparent threats visible for COCHINSHIP.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Cochin Shipyard, there are three fundamental aspects you should assess:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Cochin Shipyard that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Cochin Shipyard Limited engages in the shipbuilding and repair of ships/offshore structures in India.
Excellent balance sheet average dividend payer.