Astral Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Astral Limited (NSE:ASTRAL) missed earnings with its latest second-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Astral missed earnings this time around, with ₹14b revenue coming in 7.7% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹4.10 also fell short of expectations by 18%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Astral

After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering Astral are now predicting revenues of ₹63.0b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 13% to ₹22.14. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹65.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹25.39 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹2,052, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Astral's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Astral analyst has a price target of ₹2,410 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹1,800. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Astral is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 20% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 16% per year. So although Astral is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Astral's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Astral going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.