Stock Analysis

Do HDFC Bank's (NSE:HDFCBANK) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

NSEI:HDFCBANK
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It's only natural that many investors, especially those who are new to the game, prefer to buy shares in 'sexy' stocks with a good story, even if those businesses lose money. Unfortunately, high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson.

So if you're like me, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like HDFC Bank (NSE:HDFCBANK). While that doesn't make the shares worth buying at any price, you can't deny that successful capitalism requires profit, eventually. Conversely, a loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the sweet milk of external capital may run sour.

Check out our latest analysis for HDFC Bank

HDFC Bank's Earnings Per Share Are Growing.

As one of my mentors once told me, share price follows earnings per share (EPS). That means EPS growth is considered a real positive by most successful long-term investors. Impressively, HDFC Bank has grown EPS by 18% per year, compound, in the last three years. If the company can sustain that sort of growth, we'd expect shareholders to come away winners.

One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. Not all of HDFC Bank's revenue this year is revenue from operations, so keep in mind the revenue and margin numbers I've used might not be the best representation of the underlying business. HDFC Bank maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 17% to ₹912b. That's progress.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings, and revenue, over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NSEI:HDFCBANK Earnings and Revenue History June 8th 2022

While it's always good to see growing profits, you should always remember that a weak balance sheet could come back to bite. So check HDFC Bank's balance sheet strength, before getting too excited.

Are HDFC Bank Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a ₹7.6t company like HDFC Bank. But we do take comfort from the fact that they are investors in the company. Notably, they have an enormous stake in the company, worth ₹33b. I would find that kind of skin in the game quite encouraging, if I owned shares, since it would ensure that the leaders of the company would also experience my success, or failure, with the stock.

It's good to see that insiders are invested in the company, but are remuneration levels reasonable? A brief analysis of the CEO compensation suggests they are. I discovered that the median total compensation for the CEOs of companies like HDFC Bank, with market caps over ₹622b, is about ₹94m.

The HDFC Bank CEO received ₹66m in compensation for the year ending . That comes in below the average for similar sized companies, and seems pretty reasonable to me. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.

Should You Add HDFC Bank To Your Watchlist?

Given my belief that share price follows earnings per share you can easily imagine how I feel about HDFC Bank's strong EPS growth. If you need more convincing beyond that EPS growth rate, don't forget about the reasonable remuneration and the high insider ownership. This may only be a fast rundown, but the takeaway for me is that HDFC Bank is worth keeping an eye on. It's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with HDFC Bank (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Although HDFC Bank certainly looks good to me, I would like it more if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see insider buying, too, then this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying, could be exactly what you're looking for.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if HDFC Bank might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.