TVS Motor (NSE:TVSMOTOR) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, TVS Motor Company Limited (NSE:TVSMOTOR) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for TVS Motor

What Is TVS Motor's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2023, TVS Motor had ₹223.8b of debt, up from ₹158.3b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹20.6b, its net debt is less, at about ₹203.1b.

How Strong Is TVS Motor's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that TVS Motor had liabilities of ₹192.2b due within a year, and liabilities of ₹101.0b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had ₹20.6b in cash and ₹120.4b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₹152.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit isn't so bad because TVS Motor is worth ₹723.6b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While we wouldn't worry about TVS Motor's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.8, we think its super-low interest cover of 2.4 times is a sign of high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. The good news is that TVS Motor grew its EBIT a smooth 46% over the last twelve months. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine TVS Motor's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, TVS Motor burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

TVS Motor's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and net debt to EBITDA definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that TVS Motor is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for TVS Motor (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.