CEAT Limited's (NSE:CEATLTD) Stock Has Seen Strong Momentum: Does That Call For Deeper Study Of Its Financial Prospects?

CEAT's (NSE:CEATLTD) stock is up by a considerable 26% over the past month. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Specifically, we decided to study CEAT's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for CEAT

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for CEAT is:

11% = ₹3.3b ÷ ₹31b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every ₹1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of ₹0.11.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

CEAT's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

At first glance, CEAT's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, the fact that the company's ROE is higher than the average industry ROE of 5.6%, is definitely interesting. However, CEAT's five year net income decline rate was 14%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. So that could be one of the factors that are causing earnings growth to shrink.

That being said, we compared CEAT's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 2.9% in the same period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is CEATLTD fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is CEAT Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

When we piece together CEAT's low three-year median payout ratio of 19% (where it is retaining 81% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For instance, the business has faced some headwinds.

Moreover, CEAT has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 16%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that CEAT's future ROE will be 10% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

Overall, we feel that CEAT certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, while the company does have a decent ROE and a high profit retention, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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