Investors more bullish on Gold Bond Group (TLV:GOLD) this week as stock spikes 11%, despite earnings trending downwards over past five years

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the The Gold Bond Group Ltd. (TLV:GOLD) share price is up 79% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 38% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 55%, including dividends.

Since the stock has added ₪76m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

See our latest analysis for Gold Bond Group

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Gold Bond Group actually saw its EPS drop 2.2% per year.

So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.

The modest 1.2% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Gold Bond Group's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 8.5% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

If you are thinking of buying or selling Gold Bond Group stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Gold Bond Group, it has a TSR of 89% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Gold Bond Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 55% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 14%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Gold Bond Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Gold Bond Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Israeli exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.