Retailors Ltd's (TLV:RTLS) Shares Climb 26% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Retailors Ltd (TLV:RTLS) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 13% is also fairly reasonable.

Since its price has surged higher, Retailors' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 41x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Israel, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For instance, Retailors' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Retailors

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Retailors' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Retailors would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 28%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Retailors is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Retailors' P/E?

The strong share price surge has got Retailors' P/E rushing to great heights as well. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Retailors revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Retailors that you need to be mindful of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.