Victory Supermarket Chain Ltd's (TLV:VCTR) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing

Victory Supermarket Chain Ltd's (TLV:VCTR) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Israel, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For example, consider that Victory Supermarket Chain's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as earnings growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the benign earnings growth will improve to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Victory Supermarket Chain

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Victory Supermarket Chain's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Victory Supermarket Chain's Growth Trending?

Victory Supermarket Chain's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with earnings down 25% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Victory Supermarket Chain's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Victory Supermarket Chain revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Having said that, be aware Victory Supermarket Chain is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Victory Supermarket Chain, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.