Is China Longyuan Power Group (HKG:916) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 18, 2022
SEHK:916
Source: Shutterstock

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited (HKG:916) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for China Longyuan Power Group

What Is China Longyuan Power Group's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2021 China Longyuan Power Group had debt of CN¥95.1b, up from CN¥90.7b in one year. However, it does have CN¥4.36b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥90.7b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:916 Debt to Equity History April 18th 2022

How Healthy Is China Longyuan Power Group's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, China Longyuan Power Group had liabilities of CN¥58.5b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥59.0b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥4.36b as well as receivables valued at CN¥27.2b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥86.0b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of CN¥116.2b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on China Longyuan Power Group's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

China Longyuan Power Group has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.5 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.4 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. On the other hand, China Longyuan Power Group grew its EBIT by 21% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if China Longyuan Power Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, China Longyuan Power Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say China Longyuan Power Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that China Longyuan Power Group's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with China Longyuan Power Group (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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