Xinyi Energy Holdings (SEHK:3868) - Share price, News & Analysis

3868 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	1/6

3868 Stock Overview

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, owns, operates, and manages solar farms in the People's Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 11.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.4% per year

Earnings grew by 33.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 4.16% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Xinyi Energy Holdings Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Xinyi Energy Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$4.18
52 Week High	HK$5.84
52 Week Low	HK$3.66
Beta	0.40
1 Month Change	-1.42%
3 Month Change	-7.11%
1 Year Change	-8.13%
3 Year Change	94.42%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	115.46%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 21

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (HKG:3868)

How far off is Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited ( HKG:3868 ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial...

Apr 06

With EPS Growth And More, Xinyi Energy Holdings (HKG:3868) Is Interesting

It's only natural that many investors, especially those who are new to the game, prefer to buy shares in 'sexy' stocks...

Shareholder Returns

	3868	HK Renewable Energy	HK Market
7D	-0.9%	4.5%	2.1%
1Y	-8.1%	18.4%	-23.3%

Return vs Industry: 3868 underperformed the Hong Kong Renewable Energy industry which returned 18.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 3868 exceeded the Hong Kong Market which returned -23.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 3868's price volatile compared to industry and market?
3868 volatility
3868 Average Weekly Movement	5.0%
Renewable Energy Industry Average Movement	6.4%
Market Average Movement	7.0%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.8%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 3868 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 3868's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2015	281	Fong Ngai Tung	https://www.xinyienergy.com

Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, owns, operates, and manages solar farms in the People's Republic of China. The company operates solar farms with an installed capacity of 2,494 megawatts. It sells electricity to the State grid companies.

Xinyi Energy Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Xinyi Energy Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
3868 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	HK$29.72b
Earnings (TTM)	HK$1.23b
Revenue (TTM)	HK$2.30b

24.1x

P/E Ratio

12.9x

P/S Ratio

Is 3868 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
3868 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	HK$2.30b
Cost of Revenue	HK$617.27m
Gross Profit	HK$1.68b
Other Expenses	HK$447.11m
Earnings	HK$1.23b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.17
Gross Margin	73.12%
Net Profit Margin	53.65%
Debt/Equity Ratio	38.9%

How did 3868 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.2%

Current Dividend Yield

100%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 3868 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3868?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 3868. This is calculated by dividing 3868's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 3868's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	HK$29.72b

3868 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	14.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.7x
PEG Ratio	1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3868's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

3868 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3868 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.7x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3868 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3868's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Renewable Energy Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3868 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the Hong Kong Renewable Energy industry average (8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3868's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3868 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	24.1x
Fair PE Ratio	12.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3868 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3868 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3868 (HK$4.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$4.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3868 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 3868 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.9x)

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Future Growth

How is Xinyi Energy Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 14 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 3868's forecast earnings growth (12.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.5%).

Earnings vs Market: 3868's earnings (12.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (17% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 3868's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 3868's revenue (16.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market (10.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 3868's revenue (16.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 3868's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.1%).

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Past Performance

How has Xinyi Energy Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

13.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 3868 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 3868's current net profit margins (53.7%) are higher than last year (53.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 3868's earnings have grown by 13.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 3868's earnings growth over the past year (33.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (13.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 3868 earnings growth over the past year (33.7%) exceeded the Renewable Energy industry 2.8%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 3868's Return on Equity (9.8%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Xinyi Energy Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 3868's short term assets (HK$6.1B) exceed its short term liabilities (HK$4.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: 3868's short term assets (HK$6.1B) exceed its long term liabilities (HK$3.9B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 3868's net debt to equity ratio (29.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: 3868's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 64% to 38.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 3868's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (25.1%).

Interest Coverage: 3868's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Xinyi Energy Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.16%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 3868's dividend (4.16%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.74%).

High Dividend: 3868's dividend (4.16%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.89%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, 3868 has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 3868's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 3 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (100.4%), 3868's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (309.9%), 3868's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Fong Ngai Tung (33 yo)

no data

Tenure

Mr. Fong Ngai Tung is an Executive Director at Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited since March 15, 2016 and serves as its CEO. He is an Executive Director and CEO of Xinyi Energy at Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 3868's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 3868's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/25 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31