The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited (HKG:1038) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 26% over a half decade.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Looking back five years, both CK Infrastructure Holdings' share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 8.1% per year. The share price decline of 6% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of CK Infrastructure Holdings, it has a TSR of -7.7% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that CK Infrastructure Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 22% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 1.5% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. Before forming an opinion on CK Infrastructure Holdings you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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