Air China Valuation

Is 753 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 753 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 753 (HK$4.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$38.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 753 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 753?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

753 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-223.8x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 753's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 753 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.4x
1055 China Southern Airlines
0.4x13.6%HK$99.8b
293 Cathay Pacific Airways
0.7x13.4%HK$52.2b
1519 J&T Global Express
1.5x19.4%HK$94.1b
66 MTR
3.1x7.2%HK$161.0b
753 Air China
0.6x14.5%HK$115.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 753 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 753's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Airlines Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a25.0%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a25.0%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 753 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the Asian Airlines industry average (0.9x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 753's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

753 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

PM vs Fair Ratio: 753 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 753 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$4.30
HK$6.21
+44.4%
13.8%HK$7.82HK$4.62n/a15
Feb ’25HK$4.28
HK$6.28
+46.7%
14.0%HK$7.83HK$4.63n/a15
Jan ’25HK$4.94
HK$6.52
+32.0%
11.4%HK$7.87HK$5.05n/a15
Dec ’24HK$5.18
HK$6.67
+28.7%
13.0%HK$8.82HK$5.13n/a15
Nov ’24HK$5.33
HK$6.66
+24.9%
14.2%HK$8.80HK$5.00n/a15
Oct ’24HK$5.29
HK$6.82
+28.9%
15.3%HK$8.80HK$5.00n/a15
Sep ’24HK$5.81
HK$6.94
+19.5%
16.4%HK$8.80HK$5.06n/a15
Aug ’24HK$6.38
HK$6.98
+9.4%
16.8%HK$8.80HK$5.10n/a15
Jul ’24HK$5.58
HK$7.03
+26.0%
14.1%HK$8.65HK$5.52n/a14
Jun ’24HK$5.43
HK$7.30
+34.5%
14.7%HK$8.81HK$5.62n/a14
May ’24HK$6.92
HK$7.47
+7.9%
16.4%HK$9.02HK$5.21n/a15
Apr ’24HK$7.02
HK$7.35
+4.7%
17.8%HK$9.45HK$5.24n/a14
Mar ’24HK$7.32
HK$7.40
+1.1%
17.9%HK$9.69HK$5.24n/a14
Feb ’24HK$6.94
HK$7.48
+7.8%
17.6%HK$9.86HK$5.33HK$4.2814
Jan ’24HK$6.95
HK$6.53
-6.0%
28.1%HK$9.47HK$3.46HK$4.9414
Dec ’23HK$6.06
HK$6.06
-0.07%
26.3%HK$8.16HK$3.38HK$5.1815
Nov ’23HK$5.83
HK$5.73
-1.7%
26.8%HK$7.80HK$3.34HK$5.3315
Oct ’23HK$6.00
HK$5.85
-2.5%
27.7%HK$8.27HK$3.47HK$5.2915
Sep ’23HK$6.10
HK$6.07
-0.6%
25.4%HK$8.40HK$3.52HK$5.8115
Aug ’23HK$6.13
HK$6.03
-1.6%
22.9%HK$8.00HK$3.60HK$6.3817
Jul ’23HK$6.82
HK$5.83
-14.5%
23.1%HK$8.05HK$3.60HK$5.5817
Jun ’23HK$5.82
HK$5.93
+1.9%
21.3%HK$8.12HK$3.81HK$5.4317
May ’23HK$5.35
HK$5.99
+12.0%
19.9%HK$8.20HK$4.10HK$6.9218
Apr ’23HK$5.65
HK$6.25
+10.6%
16.4%HK$8.60HK$4.32HK$7.0218
Mar ’23HK$6.06
HK$6.50
+7.2%
15.8%HK$9.30HK$4.35HK$7.3219
Feb ’23HK$5.84
HK$6.29
+7.7%
12.7%HK$7.81HK$4.30HK$6.9418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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