We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

JD Logistics Valuation

Is 2618 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2618?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

2618 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA36.8x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 2618's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 2618 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.4x
636 Kerry Logistics Network
0.3x-7.1%HK$27.7b
598 Sinotrans
0.2x0.08%HK$29.9b
9699 Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial
1x27.8%HK$10.2b
1442 Infinity Logistics and Transport Ventures
4.3xn/aHK$2.6b
2618 JD Logistics
0.7x15.1%HK$108.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 2618 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2618's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a23.3%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 2618 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Logistics industry average (0.3x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2618's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2618 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.7x
Fair PS Ratio1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 2618 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2618 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2618 (HK$17.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$43.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2618 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2618 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$17.84
HK$23.85
+33.7%
24.8%HK$39.42HK$14.80n/a17
Jan ’24HK$15.12
HK$22.78
+50.7%
29.6%HK$37.91HK$12.95n/a17
Dec ’23HK$14.12
HK$22.17
+57.0%
29.5%HK$36.85HK$12.59n/a17
Nov ’23HK$11.86
HK$22.74
+91.7%
26.5%HK$34.92HK$12.70n/a17
Oct ’23HK$13.80
HK$24.09
+74.6%
21.7%HK$36.16HK$18.19n/a17
Sep ’23HK$16.36
HK$24.41
+49.2%
22.0%HK$36.71HK$17.73n/a17
Aug ’23HK$15.84
HK$25.34
+60.0%
22.8%HK$38.01HK$18.03n/a17
Jul ’23HK$17.12
HK$25.76
+50.5%
22.2%HK$38.24HK$18.14n/a17
Jun ’23HK$15.26
HK$26.57
+74.1%
25.0%HK$39.98HK$18.21n/a17
May ’23HK$16.44
HK$31.93
+94.2%
21.8%HK$42.35HK$21.52n/a15
Apr ’23HK$18.90
HK$34.21
+81.0%
18.5%HK$42.88HK$23.20n/a15
Mar ’23HK$25.80
HK$39.18
+51.9%
18.6%HK$57.58HK$29.91n/a16
Feb ’23HK$23.15
HK$39.18
+69.3%
18.6%HK$57.59HK$29.89HK$17.8416
Jan ’23HK$26.45
HK$41.01
+55.1%
17.2%HK$57.42HK$29.89HK$15.1216
Dec ’22HK$24.90
HK$41.09
+65.0%
18.4%HK$57.23HK$30.00HK$14.1213
Nov ’22HK$30.60
HK$40.63
+32.8%
20.1%HK$57.03HK$29.89HK$11.8612
Oct ’22HK$32.40
HK$41.08
+26.8%
21.1%HK$56.51HK$29.93HK$13.8012
Sep ’22HK$33.20
HK$40.44
+21.8%
23.2%HK$56.46HK$29.90HK$16.3610
Aug ’22HK$28.05
HK$52.29
+86.4%
14.5%HK$58.25HK$34.88HK$15.847
Jul ’22HK$42.30
HK$53.15
+25.6%
8.4%HK$58.50HK$44.92HK$17.126

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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