There's Reason For Concern Over MTR Corporation Limited's (HKG:66) Price

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 12x in Hong Kong, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about MTR Corporation Limited's (HKG:66) P/E ratio of 11x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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MTR certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for MTR

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on MTR.

Is There Some Growth For MTR?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like MTR's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 102%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 64% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 4.7% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth per year, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we find it concerning that MTR is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of MTR's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You need to take note of risks, for example - MTR has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on MTR, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.