The board of MTR Corporation Limited (HKG:66) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 13th of October, with investors receiving HK$0.42 per share. This means the dividend yield will be fairly typical at 4.0%.
See our latest analysis for MTR
MTR's Dividend Is Well Covered By Earnings
We aren't too impressed by dividend yields unless they can be sustained over time. The last dividend made up quite a large portion of free cash flows, and this was made worse by the lack of free cash flows. We think that this practice can make the dividend quite risky in the future.
The next year is set to see EPS grow by 94.3%. Assuming the dividend continues along the course it has been charting recently, our estimates show the payout ratio being 47% which brings it into quite a comfortable range.
Dividend Volatility
Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of HK$0.79 in 2013 to the most recent total annual payment of HK$1.31. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.2% a year over that time. We like to see dividends have grown at a reasonable rate, but with at least one substantial cut in the payments, we're not certain this dividend stock would be ideal for someone intending to live on the income.
The Dividend Has Limited Growth Potential
Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Over the past five years, it looks as though MTR's EPS has declined at around 11% a year. Such rapid declines definitely have the potential to constrain dividend payments if the trend continues into the future. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.
MTR's Dividend Doesn't Look Sustainable
In summary, while it's good to see that the dividend hasn't been cut, we are a bit cautious about MTR's payments, as there could be some issues with sustaining them into the future. The track record isn't great, and the payments are a bit high to be considered sustainable. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. For example, we've picked out 2 warning signs for MTR that investors should know about before committing capital to this stock. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:66
MTR
Designs, constructs, operates, maintains, and invests in railways in Hong Kong, Australia, Mainland China, Macao, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.