JD Logistics, Inc. (HKG:2618) Stock Rockets 27% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

JD Logistics, Inc. (HKG:2618) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 27% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 7.0% over the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that JD Logistics' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Logistics industry in Hong Kong, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for JD Logistics

What Does JD Logistics' Recent Performance Look Like?

There hasn't been much to differentiate JD Logistics' and the industry's revenue growth lately. The P/S ratio is probably moderate because investors think this modest revenue performance will continue. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this can at least be maintained so that you could pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Keen to find out how analysts think JD Logistics' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

JD Logistics' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 12%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 94% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.0% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 9.2% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's curious that JD Logistics' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

JD Logistics' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of JD Logistics' revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for JD Logistics with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If you're unsure about the strength of JD Logistics' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.