A Look At Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics' (HKG:1292) Share Price Returns

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co., Ltd. (HKG:1292) share price has gained 23% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 69% after a long stretch. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. We'd err towards caution given the long term under-performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over five years Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics' earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics' TSR of was a loss of 65% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics provided a TSR of 2.1% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 11% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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