Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Contel Technology Company Limited (HKG:1912) Shares Dive 27%

The Contel Technology Company Limited (HKG:1912) share price has softened a substantial 27% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 29%, which is great even in a bull market.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Contel Technology's P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Electronic industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Contel Technology

How Has Contel Technology Performed Recently?

For instance, Contel Technology's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Contel Technology's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Contel Technology's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Contel Technology's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 46%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 57% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 20% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Contel Technology's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Following Contel Technology's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

The fact that Contel Technology currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Contel Technology is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 3 of those shouldn't be ignored.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com