Youzan Technology Limited (HKG:8083) Stock Rockets 26% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

The Youzan Technology Limited (HKG:8083) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 69% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Youzan Technology's P/S ratio of 2.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Software industry in Hong Kong is also close to 2.2x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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View our latest analysis for Youzan Technology

What Does Youzan Technology's Recent Performance Look Like?

Youzan Technology could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Youzan Technology.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Youzan Technology's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 8.1% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the only analyst covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 3.0% per annum over the next three years. With the industry predicted to deliver 32% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Youzan Technology is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Youzan Technology's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Given that Youzan Technology's revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Youzan Technology with six simple checks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.