Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.3% to HK$3.26 in the week after its latest interim results. Revenues were CN¥10.0b, 13% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥0.11 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 21 analysts covering Xinyi Solar Holdings is for revenues of CN¥18.4b in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Xinyi Solar Holdings forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥0.13 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥18.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.13 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Xinyi Solar Holdings

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$3.84, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Xinyi Solar Holdings at HK$7.20 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$1.90. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 24% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. It's pretty clear that Xinyi Solar Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Xinyi Solar Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Xinyi Solar Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.