Results: Pop Mart International Group Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for Pop Mart International Group Limited (HKG:9992) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 7.3% to HK$33.80. Pop Mart International Group reported CN¥6.3b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.81 beat expectations, being 6.9% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Pop Mart International Group

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Pop Mart International Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥8.27b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 31% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 34% to CN¥1.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥8.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.07 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 8.4% to HK$32.48. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Pop Mart International Group at HK$39.99 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$25.89. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Pop Mart International Group'shistorical trends, as the 31% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 30% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that Pop Mart International Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Pop Mart International Group following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Pop Mart International Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Pop Mart International Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.