Guorui Properties (HKG:2329) investors are sitting on a loss of 84% if they invested five years ago

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 25, 2022
SEHK:2329
Source: Shutterstock

Some stocks are best avoided. We don't wish catastrophic capital loss on anyone. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Guorui Properties Limited (HKG:2329) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 87%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 59% in the last year. On the other hand the share price has bounced 10.0% over the last week. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Guorui Properties

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the five years over which the share price declined, Guorui Properties' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 26% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 33% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock. The low P/E ratio of 4.06 further reflects this reticence.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:2329 Earnings Per Share Growth January 25th 2022

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Guorui Properties' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Guorui Properties' TSR, which was a 84% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Guorui Properties shareholders are down 59% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 14%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 13% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guorui Properties better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Guorui Properties (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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