Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Roiserv Lifestyle Services Co., Ltd. (HKG:2146)

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 14, 2022
SEHK:2146
Source: Shutterstock

How far off is Roiserv Lifestyle Services Co., Ltd. (HKG:2146) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Roiserv Lifestyle Services

The calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥69.3m CN¥66.8m CN¥65.5m CN¥64.8m CN¥64.7m CN¥64.8m CN¥65.2m CN¥65.8m CN¥66.5m CN¥67.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -5.72% Est @ -3.56% Est @ -2.05% Est @ -0.99% Est @ -0.25% Est @ 0.27% Est @ 0.63% Est @ 0.89% Est @ 1.06% Est @ 1.19%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% CN¥64.9 CN¥58.7 CN¥53.9 CN¥50.0 CN¥46.7 CN¥43.9 CN¥41.4 CN¥39.1 CN¥37.1 CN¥35.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥470m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥67m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (6.7%– 1.5%) = CN¥1.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥1.3b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= CN¥681m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥1.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$4.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
SEHK:2146 Discounted Cash Flow March 14th 2022

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Roiserv Lifestyle Services as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.060. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Roiserv Lifestyle Services, there are three important aspects you should assess:

  1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Roiserv Lifestyle Services you should know about.
  2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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