Should You Think About Buying Swire Pacific Limited (HKG:19) Now?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Swire Pacific Limited (HKG:19). The company's stock saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the SEHK. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s examine Swire Pacific’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

View our latest analysis for Swire Pacific

What is Swire Pacific worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 11% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Swire Pacific today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is HK$69.30, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Swire Pacific’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What kind of growth will Swire Pacific generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With revenues expected to grow by a double-digit 15% over the next couple of years, the outlook is positive for Swire Pacific. If the level of expenses is able to be maintained, it looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in 19’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on 19, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you want to dive deeper into Swire Pacific, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for Swire Pacific and we think they deserve your attention.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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