Should You Investigate Hysan Development Company Limited (HKG:14) At HK$28.60?

Hysan Development Company Limited (HKG:14), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the SEHK. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s examine Hysan Development’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

See our latest analysis for Hysan Development

What is Hysan Development worth?

Hysan Development appears to be overvalued by 30% at the moment, based on my discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at HK$28.60 on the market compared to my intrinsic value of HK$21.96. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now. Another thing to keep in mind is that Hysan Development’s share price is quite stable relative to the market, as indicated by its low beta. This means that if you believe the current share price should move towards its intrinsic value over time, a low beta could suggest it is not likely to reach that level anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range again.

What kind of growth will Hysan Development generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Hysan Development, it is expected to deliver a highly negative revenue growth over the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? If you believe 14 is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to reduce your total portfolio risk. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on 14 for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Price climbed passed its true value, in addition to a risky future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Hysan Development at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Hysan Development you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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