Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Hang Lung Properties Limited (HKG:101) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out the opportunities and risks within the HK Real Estate industry.
What Is Hang Lung Properties's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, Hang Lung Properties had HK$44.9b of debt, up from HK$41.7b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has HK$4.64b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$40.3b.
A Look At Hang Lung Properties' Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Hang Lung Properties had liabilities of HK$13.7b due within 12 months and liabilities of HK$55.0b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$4.64b as well as receivables valued at HK$3.51b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$60.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of HK$46.4b, we think shareholders really should watch Hang Lung Properties's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Strangely Hang Lung Properties has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.8, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 17.4. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Hang Lung Properties grew its EBIT by 4.6% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hang Lung Properties's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Hang Lung Properties recorded free cash flow worth 58% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
On the face of it, Hang Lung Properties's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its net debt to EBITDA was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Hang Lung Properties's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Hang Lung Properties you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:101
Hang Lung Properties
An investment holding company, engages in the property investment, development, and management activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
Mediocre balance sheet second-rate dividend payer.