Yuexiu Property Company Limited

SHSC:123 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$22.6b

Yuexiu Property Valuation

Is 123 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 123 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 123 (HK$5.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$281.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 123 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 123?

Key metric: As 123 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 123. This is calculated by dividing 123's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 123's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.4x
EarningsCN¥2.84b
Market CapCN¥21.05b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 123's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 123 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average36.8x
3900 Greentown China Holdings
8.3x5.9%HK$23.5b
1908 C&D International Investment Group
6.3x11.1%HK$26.2b
754 Hopson Development Holdings
127.7xn/aHK$11.8b
119 Poly Property Group
4.8x-2.1%HK$6.1b
123 Yuexiu Property
7.4x9.1%HK$22.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 123 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the peer average (36.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 123's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings
0.3xn/aUS$229.41m
2768 Jiayuan International Group
1.4x31.6%US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group
0.06xn/aUS$128.74m
2117 Datang Group Holdings
1.2xn/aUS$87.18m
123 7.4xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies17PE0612182430+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 123 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 123's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

123 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.4x
Fair PE Ratio9.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 123 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 123 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$5.62
HK$6.72
+19.5%
25.1%HK$9.96HK$4.13n/a13
Nov ’25HK$6.57
HK$6.75
+2.7%
25.6%HK$10.14HK$4.20n/a13
Oct ’25HK$6.36
HK$6.31
-0.7%
25.1%HK$10.25HK$4.25n/a13
Sep ’25HK$4.08
HK$6.20
+51.9%
24.6%HK$10.18HK$4.22n/a12
Aug ’25HK$4.55
HK$8.16
+79.4%
18.4%HK$11.03HK$5.27n/a13
Jul ’25HK$5.10
HK$8.18
+60.4%
18.0%HK$11.00HK$5.25n/a13
Jun ’25HK$5.67
HK$8.24
+45.3%
21.4%HK$11.64HK$5.28n/a13
May ’25HK$4.70
HK$8.12
+72.7%
22.5%HK$11.67HK$5.29n/a12
Apr ’25HK$4.31
HK$8.68
+101.3%
30.2%HK$15.39HK$5.29n/a13
Mar ’25HK$5.15
HK$10.28
+99.6%
20.3%HK$15.46HK$7.44n/a13
Feb ’25HK$4.84
HK$10.34
+113.6%
20.3%HK$15.55HK$7.48n/a13
Jan ’25HK$6.36
HK$12.14
+90.8%
13.7%HK$15.64HK$8.03n/a14
Dec ’24HK$7.05
HK$12.48
+77.0%
9.9%HK$15.50HK$11.14n/a14
Nov ’24HK$8.08
HK$12.26
+51.7%
9.8%HK$15.21HK$10.94HK$6.5714
Oct ’24HK$9.03
HK$12.32
+36.4%
9.5%HK$15.30HK$11.00HK$6.3615
Sep ’24HK$9.72
HK$12.34
+26.9%
9.5%HK$15.32HK$11.01HK$4.0815
Aug ’24HK$10.46
HK$13.08
+25.1%
9.4%HK$15.79HK$11.54HK$4.5515
Jul ’24HK$9.11
HK$12.96
+42.2%
9.5%HK$15.66HK$11.42HK$5.1015
Jun ’24HK$7.97
HK$13.32
+67.1%
8.9%HK$15.99HK$11.82HK$5.6715
May ’24HK$11.32
HK$13.71
+21.1%
9.1%HK$16.44HK$12.15HK$4.7015
Apr ’24HK$11.84
HK$13.76
+16.3%
7.3%HK$16.53HK$12.87HK$4.3114
Mar ’24HK$12.44
HK$12.40
-0.3%
13.1%HK$15.18HK$10.30HK$5.1513
Feb ’24HK$11.44
HK$11.96
+4.5%
10.6%HK$13.82HK$10.50HK$4.8410
Jan ’24HK$9.45
HK$11.13
+17.7%
10.1%HK$13.59HK$10.16HK$6.3611
Dec ’23HK$9.69
HK$10.60
+9.4%
8.6%HK$13.17HK$9.84HK$7.0511
Nov ’23HK$7.09
HK$10.60
+49.5%
8.6%HK$13.17HK$9.84HK$8.0811

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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