Greentown China Holdings Valuation

Is 3900 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3900 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3900 (HK$9.39) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$8.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3900 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3900?

Key metric: As 3900 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3900. This is calculated by dividing 3900's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3900's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	8.5x
Earnings	CN¥2.62b
Market Cap	CN¥22.62b

3900 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	20.4x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3900's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3900 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	36.3x
123 Yuexiu Property	7.4x	9.1%	HK$23.0b
1908 C&D International Investment Group	6.2x	11.1%	HK$26.6b
754 Hopson Development Holdings	126.4x	n/a	HK$11.8b
119 Poly Property Group	4.9x	-2.1%	HK$6.3b
3900 Greentown China Holdings	8.5x	5.9%	HK$24.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (36.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3900's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings	0.3x	n/a	US$237.87m
2768 Jiayuan International Group	1.4x	31.6%	US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group	0.06x	n/a	US$123.77m
2117 Datang Group Holdings	1.2x	n/a	US$87.18m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3900 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3900's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3900 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.5x
Fair PE Ratio	9.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3900 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$9.39	HK$9.37 -0.2%	25.9%	HK$13.10	HK$5.99	n/a	9
Nov ’25	HK$10.66	HK$9.20 -13.7%	22.8%	HK$11.87	HK$6.10	n/a	9
Oct ’25	HK$9.16	HK$8.34 -9.0%	19.2%	HK$11.02	HK$6.19	n/a	9
Sep ’25	HK$6.18	HK$7.80 +26.3%	13.2%	HK$9.70	HK$6.12	n/a	9
Aug ’25	HK$5.69	HK$8.93 +57.0%	18.8%	HK$11.27	HK$6.37	n/a	8
Jul ’25	HK$6.14	HK$9.21 +50.1%	17.6%	HK$11.25	HK$6.36	n/a	8
Jun ’25	HK$7.63	HK$9.33 +22.3%	16.7%	HK$11.30	HK$6.38	n/a	8
May ’25	HK$6.91	HK$9.18 +32.9%	15.3%	HK$11.00	HK$6.40	n/a	8
Apr ’25	HK$6.24	HK$9.61 +54.0%	9.7%	HK$10.98	HK$8.08	n/a	8
Mar ’25	HK$6.50	HK$10.31 +58.6%	10.4%	HK$12.16	HK$8.66	n/a	8
Feb ’25	HK$5.89	HK$10.83 +83.9%	7.2%	HK$12.16	HK$9.75	n/a	8
Jan ’25	HK$7.95	HK$11.26 +41.6%	11.1%	HK$13.59	HK$9.77	n/a	8
Dec ’24	HK$8.26	HK$11.80 +42.8%	8.5%	HK$13.62	HK$9.96	HK$9.52	8
Nov ’24	HK$7.65	HK$11.79 +54.1%	9.4%	HK$13.47	HK$9.73	HK$10.66	8
Oct ’24	HK$8.13	HK$12.07 +48.4%	8.8%	HK$13.57	HK$9.80	HK$9.16	8
Sep ’24	HK$9.32	HK$12.07 +29.5%	8.8%	HK$13.57	HK$9.80	HK$6.18	8
Aug ’24	HK$8.81	HK$14.50 +64.6%	9.8%	HK$16.13	HK$11.97	HK$5.69	8
Jul ’24	HK$7.85	HK$14.37 +83.1%	7.8%	HK$15.57	HK$12.16	HK$6.14	8
Jun ’24	HK$7.38	HK$14.37 +94.8%	7.8%	HK$15.57	HK$12.16	HK$7.63	8
May ’24	HK$9.40	HK$14.73 +56.6%	7.9%	HK$16.00	HK$12.50	HK$6.91	8
Apr ’24	HK$10.18	HK$14.73 +44.6%	7.9%	HK$16.00	HK$12.50	HK$6.24	8
Mar ’24	HK$11.46	HK$16.17 +41.1%	21.7%	HK$20.93	HK$8.37	HK$6.50	8
Feb ’24	HK$11.96	HK$16.88 +41.1%	20.5%	HK$20.92	HK$8.58	HK$5.89	9
Jan ’24	HK$11.40	HK$16.69 +46.4%	22.9%	HK$21.63	HK$8.25	HK$7.95	8
Dec ’23	HK$12.78	HK$16.61 +30.0%	22.2%	HK$21.11	HK$8.06	HK$8.26	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.