Greentown China Holdings Valuation
Is 3900 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 3900 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 3900 (HK$6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$6.98)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 3900 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3900?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is 3900's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | CN¥14.06b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 18.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 3900's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 5x | ||
123 Yuexiu Property | 5.1x | 9.3% | HK$17.7b |
754 Hopson Development Holdings | 4.6x | n/a | HK$13.6b |
28 Tian An China Investments | 4.5x | n/a | HK$5.5b |
1908 C&D International Investment Group | 5.9x | 12.8% | HK$27.5b |
3900 Greentown China Holdings | 4.5x | 8.3% | HK$15.2b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.5x) compared to the peer average (5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 3900's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 3900's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 4.5x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3900 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$6.00 | HK$9.19 +53.2% | 15.3% | HK$11.00 | HK$6.40 | n/a | 8 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$6.24 | HK$9.62 +54.2% | 9.6% | HK$10.98 | HK$8.10 | n/a | 8 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$6.50 | HK$10.31 +58.6% | 10.4% | HK$12.16 | HK$8.66 | n/a | 8 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$5.89 | HK$10.83 +83.9% | 7.2% | HK$12.16 | HK$9.75 | n/a | 8 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$7.95 | HK$11.26 +41.6% | 11.1% | HK$13.59 | HK$9.77 | n/a | 8 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$8.26 | HK$11.80 +42.8% | 8.5% | HK$13.62 | HK$9.96 | n/a | 8 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$7.65 | HK$11.79 +54.1% | 9.4% | HK$13.47 | HK$9.73 | n/a | 8 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$8.13 | HK$12.07 +48.4% | 8.8% | HK$13.57 | HK$9.80 | n/a | 8 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$9.32 | HK$12.07 +29.5% | 8.8% | HK$13.57 | HK$9.80 | n/a | 8 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$8.81 | HK$14.50 +64.6% | 9.8% | HK$16.13 | HK$11.97 | n/a | 8 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$7.85 | HK$14.37 +83.1% | 7.8% | HK$15.57 | HK$12.16 | n/a | 8 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$7.38 | HK$14.37 +94.8% | 7.8% | HK$15.57 | HK$12.16 | n/a | 8 |
| May ’24 | HK$9.40 | HK$14.73 +56.6% | 7.9% | HK$16.00 | HK$12.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$10.18 | HK$14.73 +44.6% | 7.9% | HK$16.00 | HK$12.50 | HK$6.24 | 8 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$11.46 | HK$16.17 +41.1% | 21.7% | HK$20.93 | HK$8.37 | HK$6.50 | 8 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$11.96 | HK$16.88 +41.1% | 20.5% | HK$20.92 | HK$8.58 | HK$5.89 | 9 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$11.40 | HK$16.69 +46.4% | 22.9% | HK$21.63 | HK$8.25 | HK$7.95 | 8 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$12.78 | HK$16.61 +30.0% | 22.2% | HK$21.11 | HK$8.06 | HK$8.26 | 8 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$7.79 | HK$15.81 +103.0% | 25.3% | HK$20.98 | HK$8.01 | HK$7.65 | 9 |
| Oct ’23 | HK$14.76 | HK$16.61 +12.5% | 16.6% | HK$20.14 | HK$10.21 | HK$8.13 | 9 |
| Sep ’23 | HK$15.32 | HK$17.23 +12.5% | 15.8% | HK$20.92 | HK$10.61 | HK$9.32 | 10 |
| Aug ’23 | HK$15.50 | HK$16.36 +5.5% | 15.4% | HK$19.86 | HK$10.78 | HK$8.81 | 10 |
| Jul ’23 | HK$16.26 | HK$15.87 -2.4% | 14.1% | HK$19.74 | HK$10.85 | HK$7.85 | 10 |
| Jun ’23 | HK$13.62 | HK$15.07 +10.7% | 11.8% | HK$17.22 | HK$10.90 | HK$7.38 | 8 |
| May ’23 | HK$13.96 | HK$15.24 +9.2% | 12.4% | HK$17.40 | HK$10.88 | HK$9.40 | 7 |
| Apr ’23 | HK$14.50 | HK$14.78 +1.9% | 11.7% | HK$16.22 | HK$10.92 | HK$10.18 | 7 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.