Central China New Life Limited's (HKG:9983) 25% Dip Still Leaving Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Its P/SRatio

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Central China New Life Limited (HKG:9983) shares are down a considerable 25% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 44% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Central China New Life's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Real Estate industry is similar at about 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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See our latest analysis for Central China New Life

How Has Central China New Life Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Central China New Life's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Central China New Life's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Central China New Life's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 2.4% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 19% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 5.4% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Central China New Life's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Central China New Life's P/S?

Following Central China New Life's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We find it unexpected that Central China New Life trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Central China New Life (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.