Shenzhen Investment (HKG:604) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Shenzhen Investment Limited (HKG:604) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Shenzhen Investment

How Much Debt Does Shenzhen Investment Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 Shenzhen Investment had debt of HK$70.3b, up from HK$65.6b in one year. On the flip side, it has HK$11.4b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$58.8b.

How Healthy Is Shenzhen Investment's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Shenzhen Investment had liabilities of HK$81.6b due within 12 months, and liabilities of HK$37.1b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had HK$11.4b in cash and HK$6.43b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling HK$100.9b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the HK$10.9b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Shenzhen Investment would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Shenzhen Investment has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 15.9 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 4.4 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. Even worse, Shenzhen Investment saw its EBIT tank 66% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shenzhen Investment's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Shenzhen Investment burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Shenzhen Investment's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its interest cover is not so bad. It looks to us like Shenzhen Investment carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you play with fire you risk getting burnt, so we'd probably give this stock a wide berth. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Shenzhen Investment (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.