Greentown China Holdings Limited Just Beat Revenue By 14%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Greentown China Holdings Limited (HKG:3900) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to HK$11.34 in the past week. Revenues of CN¥159b beat forecasts by 14%, although statutory earnings per share disappointed slightly, coming in 3.1% below expectations at CN¥0.63. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Greentown China Holdings provided consensus estimates of CN¥138.9b revenue in 2025, which would reflect an uneasy 12% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 96% to CN¥1.24. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥137.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.13 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Greentown China Holdings' earnings potential following these results.

View our latest analysis for Greentown China Holdings

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of HK$12.29, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Greentown China Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$18.96 and the most bearish at HK$9.26 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Greentown China Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 19% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Greentown China Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Greentown China Holdings' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Greentown China Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Greentown China Holdings (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.